![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tennis blatherings, and some math
Sep. 30th, 2009 08:15 pmI'm not even going to talk about the shit that went down in Tokyo, aside from POTENTIAL MASHA/VIKA FIERCE BITCHES FINAL YES YES YES PLEASE. and I honestly don't know whether or not to worry about Rafa, so we're going with default low-level concern until he actually plays. I really hope he will save himself for Davis Cup because if he isn't there I'm going to cry like a little bitch. and so will Feli.
however, since I get very into the math that goes into the rankings, I thought I would talk about the current dream of my life, which is that Nole manages to get his head out of his ass and reclaim #3 from Mandy, and also hold onto it long enough for the end of year rankings. (my hopes of that one are slim, since Nole would have to actually defend the Year-End Championship, but oh well.)
Mandy is currently at #3 with 8,390 points. he isn't dropping anything until October 19, but then he loses 1000 points for Madrid, 500 points for St. Petersburg on October 26, and 250 points for Paris on November 2. Shanghai and Paris are mandatories coming up, but to the best of my knowledge (?) he's not defending St. Petersburg, and he just withdrew from Tokyo, so depending on how he does in the Masters, especially Shanghai, which is replacing Madrid, he could be losing quite a bit. (I wonder if he'll ask for a wildcard to Basel or Valencia? I think the top players are required to play at least one 500 event after the USO.)
Nole is currently at #4 with 7,330 points, and he was apparently basically a joke last year from the USO to the YEC, because he's defending a grand total of 300 points (Madrid and Paris, R16 for both). depending on how he does in Beijing and the Masters, he realistically could move up if Mandy doesn't defend Madrid/Shanghai. he's not staying up there unless he defends the YEC, though; he got 1300 points for that.
Rafa's not defending much of anything for the rest of the year; 750 total for Madrid and Paris, and he didn't even play the YEC (he would have gotten 200 points for showing up). I kind of wish he wouldn't play Beijing, honestly, but I think he doesn't want to come back to a Masters tournament and he has to play Shanghai the week after. just please don't be a moron and get injured again, ok? it is okay to withdraw if you are injured. it is okay to retire from a match if you are injured, too. don't be such a fucking idiot.
but I did promise math.
Mandy: 8,390 - 1,750 = 6,640 (before YEC)
6,640 - 600 = 6,040 (after YEC)
Nole: 7,330 - 300 = 7,030 (before YEC)
7,030 - 1,300 = 5,730 (after YEC)
Rafa: 8,845 - 700 = 8,145 (before YEC)
8,145 - 0 = 8,145 (after YEC)
actually, if Nole manages to outplay Mandy for the rest of the year, he's looking pretty solid. if he does well in Beijing that would be a nice cushion, and if he could manage to, you know, win some shit in Asia, that would be awesome. not that I really want him to win, since Rafa's playing in all the same tournaments, but come on, Nole, please stop slumping sometime soon. (also, Mandy would have to pull some crazy shenanigans and actually win the YEC in order to overtake Rafa for year-end #2, so that's nice to know. much depends on the state of his wrist, I suppose, but I don't think he can actually win all the major hardcourt events left in the year, especially with JMDP all up in the house.)
ok, blatherings over, off to do thesis research!
however, since I get very into the math that goes into the rankings, I thought I would talk about the current dream of my life, which is that Nole manages to get his head out of his ass and reclaim #3 from Mandy, and also hold onto it long enough for the end of year rankings. (my hopes of that one are slim, since Nole would have to actually defend the Year-End Championship, but oh well.)
Mandy is currently at #3 with 8,390 points. he isn't dropping anything until October 19, but then he loses 1000 points for Madrid, 500 points for St. Petersburg on October 26, and 250 points for Paris on November 2. Shanghai and Paris are mandatories coming up, but to the best of my knowledge (?) he's not defending St. Petersburg, and he just withdrew from Tokyo, so depending on how he does in the Masters, especially Shanghai, which is replacing Madrid, he could be losing quite a bit. (I wonder if he'll ask for a wildcard to Basel or Valencia? I think the top players are required to play at least one 500 event after the USO.)
Nole is currently at #4 with 7,330 points, and he was apparently basically a joke last year from the USO to the YEC, because he's defending a grand total of 300 points (Madrid and Paris, R16 for both). depending on how he does in Beijing and the Masters, he realistically could move up if Mandy doesn't defend Madrid/Shanghai. he's not staying up there unless he defends the YEC, though; he got 1300 points for that.
Rafa's not defending much of anything for the rest of the year; 750 total for Madrid and Paris, and he didn't even play the YEC (he would have gotten 200 points for showing up). I kind of wish he wouldn't play Beijing, honestly, but I think he doesn't want to come back to a Masters tournament and he has to play Shanghai the week after. just please don't be a moron and get injured again, ok? it is okay to withdraw if you are injured. it is okay to retire from a match if you are injured, too. don't be such a fucking idiot.
but I did promise math.
Mandy: 8,390 - 1,750 = 6,640 (before YEC)
6,640 - 600 = 6,040 (after YEC)
Nole: 7,330 - 300 = 7,030 (before YEC)
7,030 - 1,300 = 5,730 (after YEC)
Rafa: 8,845 - 700 = 8,145 (before YEC)
8,145 - 0 = 8,145 (after YEC)
actually, if Nole manages to outplay Mandy for the rest of the year, he's looking pretty solid. if he does well in Beijing that would be a nice cushion, and if he could manage to, you know, win some shit in Asia, that would be awesome. not that I really want him to win, since Rafa's playing in all the same tournaments, but come on, Nole, please stop slumping sometime soon. (also, Mandy would have to pull some crazy shenanigans and actually win the YEC in order to overtake Rafa for year-end #2, so that's nice to know. much depends on the state of his wrist, I suppose, but I don't think he can actually win all the major hardcourt events left in the year, especially with JMDP all up in the house.)
ok, blatherings over, off to do thesis research!
